TRIVELA · 8 leagues · 3 national competitions
Every match,
made readable.
Read against the real market before kickoff, recorded in play, reviewed after the whistle.Now with Trivela VAR →
Club plane · 154 clubs · 10 passes · one scale
National plane · 139 teams · 5 passes · own axis
Each dot is one team · left to right = rating · clubs as of 7 Oct 2026shadow · not advice
Overview · two planes
Eleven competitions
293 teams in all · clubs and national teams never share an axis
Pick a competition to light its teams.
- Before kickoff
- Rating gap, home term and tiers; our model’s forecast beside the exchange’s book.
- In play
- Model beside the market: EPL, La Liga, MLS.
- not yetThe other eight: minute by minute from the market’s own T−10 price, not a model.
- After the whistle
- The review: what was said, beside what happened.
Leagues · 01 / 11 · England
Premier League
20 clubs · rated 1,631–2,046
club plane · 10 passes
- 1Arsenal2,046
- 2Manchester City2,032
- 3Aston Villa1,948
- Before kickoff
- Rating gap, home term and tiers; our model’s forecast beside the exchange’s book.
- In play
- Model beside the market, minute by minute.
- After the whistle
- The review: what was said, beside what happened.
Leagues · 02 / 11 · Spain
La Liga
17 clubs · rated 1,657–1,998
club plane · 10 passes
- 1Barcelona1,998
- 2Real Madrid1,938
- 3Atlético Madrid1,851
- Before kickoff
- Rating gap, home term and tiers; our model’s forecast beside the exchange’s book.
- In play
- Model beside the market, minute by minute.
- After the whistle
- The review: what was said, beside what happened.
Leagues · 03 / 11 · USA · Canada
MLS
30 clubs · rated 1,460–1,763
club plane · 10 passes
- 1Inter Miami1,763
- 2Los Angeles FC1,729
- 3Nashville SC1,677
- Before kickoff
- Rating gap, home term and tiers; our model’s forecast beside the exchange’s book.
- In play
- Model beside the market, minute by minute.
- After the whistle
- The review: what was said, beside what happened.
Leagues · 04 / 11 · Mexico
Liga MX
17 clubs · rated 1,383–1,755
club plane · 10 passes
- 1Cruz Azul1,755
- 2Toluca1,693
- 3Tigres UANL1,668
- Before kickoff
- Rating gap, home term and tiers; our model’s forecast beside the exchange’s book.
- In play
- not yetMinute by minute from the market’s own T−10 price, not a model.
- After the whistle
- The review: what was said, beside what happened.
Leagues · 05 / 11 · Germany
Bundesliga
17 clubs · rated 1,570–2,064
club plane · 10 passes
- 1Bayern München2,064
- 2Borussia Dortmund1,857
- 3Bayer Leverkusen1,840
- Before kickoff
- Rating gap, home term and tiers; our model’s forecast beside the exchange’s book.
- In play
- not yetMinute by minute from the market’s own T−10 price, not a model.
- After the whistle
- The review: what was said, beside what happened.
Leagues · 06 / 11 · Italy
Serie A
19 clubs · rated 1,367–1,889
club plane · 10 passes
- 1Inter1,889
- 2AS Roma1,794
- 3Napoli1,792
- Before kickoff
- Rating gap, home term and tiers; our model’s forecast beside the exchange’s book.
- In play
- not yetMinute by minute from the market’s own T−10 price, not a model.
- After the whistle
- The review: what was said, beside what happened.
Leagues · 07 / 11 · France
Ligue 1
16 clubs · rated 1,622–1,987
club plane · 10 passes
- 1Paris Saint Germain1,987
- 2Lens1,845
- 3Lyon1,795
- Before kickoff
- Rating gap, home term and tiers; our model’s forecast beside the exchange’s book.
- In play
- not yetMinute by minute from the market’s own T−10 price, not a model.
- After the whistle
- The review: what was said, beside what happened.
Leagues · 08 / 11 · Netherlands
Eredivisie
18 clubs · rated 1,323–1,842
club plane · 10 passes
- 1PSV Eindhoven1,842
- 2Feyenoord1,710
- 3Ajax1,705
- Before kickoff
- Rating gap, home term and tiers; our model’s forecast beside the exchange’s book.
- In play
- not yetMinute by minute from the market’s own T−10 price, not a model.
- After the whistle
- The review: what was said, beside what happened.
Nations · 09 / 11 · Europe
UEFA Nations League
54 national teams · rated 923–2,051
national plane · 5 passes
- Low
- 923
- Median
- 1,629
- High
- 2,051
- Before kickoff
- Rating gap, home term and tiers; our model’s forecast beside the exchange’s book.
- In play
- not yetMinute by minute from the market’s own T−10 price. No national‑team model yet.
- After the whistle
- The review: what was said, beside what happened.
Nations · 10 / 11 · Concacaf
Concacaf Nations League
37 national teams · rated 1,051–1,665
national plane · 5 passes
- Low
- 1,051
- Median
- 1,352
- High
- 1,665
- Before kickoff
- Rating gap, home term and tiers; our model’s forecast beside the exchange’s book.
- In play
- not yetMinute by minute from the market’s own T−10 price. No national‑team model yet.
- After the whistle
- The review: what was said, beside what happened.
Nations · 11 / 11 · Africa
AFCON Qualifiers
48 national teams · rated 1,311–1,891
national plane · 5 passes
- Low
- 1,311
- Median
- 1,517
- High
- 1,891
- Before kickoff
- Rating gap, home term and tiers; our model’s forecast beside the exchange’s book.
- In play
- not yetMinute by minute from the market’s own T−10 price. No national‑team model yet.
- After the whistle
- The review: what was said, beside what happened.
La Liga · 20 Sep 2026
Atlético Madrid v Real Madrid
- Real Madrid rate 87 points higher.
- Atlético are at home: +65.
- Net: +22 to Real Madrid. Too close to call, so the board asks the market.
Ratings as of 7 Oct, at 10 passes — not the pre-match read.shadow · not advice
T−3h · the board
Every fixture, ranked.
Clubs and national teams, ranked by the gap between the sides — never picked. On this card, Real Madrid by a little: second v third, the exchange near 49¢. Our model, locked at T−10, leaned the other way.
Leagues · clubs
Nations · national teams
- 1the gap
- 2the tiers
- 3the exchange’s book
0′ → 90′ · in play
Ninety minutes, read.
Kick-off. Locked ten minutes before, the model leans Atlético, 42.2%; the market leans Real, 49.0%.
| outcome | model | market | gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético | 42.2 | 26.5 | +15.7 |
| Draw | 24.1 | 24.5 | −0.4 |
| Real Madrid | 33.7 | 49.0 | −15.3 |
Gap = model − market, in points.
a read, not a signal
FT · the review
What was said, what happened.
Atlético Madrid2–1Real Madrid
Model at T−10
locked 14:04 UTC · shadow · not advice
- Atlético Madrid
- 42.2%
- Draw
- 24.1%
- Real Madrid
- 33.7%
Market at the lock
last quote, 19 min before kick-off · de-vigged
- Atlético Madrid
- 27.2%
- Draw
- 24.3%
- Real Madrid
- 48.5%
What happened
- 53′Goal, Atlético Madrid · 1–0
- 54′Red card, Real Madrid
- 60′Goal, Atlético Madrid · 2–0
- 90′Goal, Real Madrid · 2–1
Picked for its full stored record, not its result. The model leaned Atlético, the market and the board leaned Real, and Atlético won. One match can’t tell a read from luck.
the record
Measured, then said plainly.
- matches studied49 competitions since 2010
- 45,500
- competitions
- 11
- Kalshi markets tracked
- 1,600+
- backend test functions
- 12,000+
- better than the old method
A learned model cuts log-loss by 0.018–0.030 per match in walk-forward tests.
- not yet confirmed
The first sealed hold-outs were too small to tell.
- passed a test set in advance
One shared model for all eleven competitions passed a test written before results were seen: better than the models it replaced in La Liga, Liga MX and AFCON, and no worse elsewhere. On past matches — not proof of an edge.
- not better than the market
No model has shown information beyond the exchange price. shadow · not advice
In progress: an agent that acts on these reads is still learning. Experimental, unproven, not advice.
TRIVELA
Every match, made readable.
A place to look, not a thing to do.
Open the board